Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Global Trends 2025

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Global Trends (via Singapore newspaper article)

WORLD IN 2025 Power shifts:-
The impact on S-E Asia (Straits Times by Ian Storrey)
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Article draws information from report called "Global Trends 2025" It is an assessment by Americas National Intelligence Council (from their community, academics and experts local and overseas) to President Elect Obama and US decision makers on what the world will look like in 2025 in terms of critical drivers and scenarios on the world scene

Article is presented below in a point form format

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* America will lose dominant position

* Rapid population growth and climate change would put energy, food and water resources under extreme pressure

* Technology proliferation would offer terrorist groups opportunities to conduct mass attacks

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* Report focusses on trouble areas such as the Middle East, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but trends identified will exert profound impact on South East Asian region too; most significantly is changes in Asian geopolitics

* Current US dominated uni-polar system will have transformed into a truly multi-poloar one caused by the rise of China & India, an increasingly globalized economy and an accelerated shift in economic power from west to east.

* Indicates China will be the worlds second biggest economy (after America), a leading military power, the largest importer of natural resources and an even bigger polluter than it is today

* Suggest that developing countries may be increasingly attracted to Beijing's state-centric model rather than western models of democracy and free markets

* India will be third largest economy, with greatly enhanced military capabilities. Its partnership with the US will strengthen as a hedge against China

* Japan will become an upper middle rank power with its shrinking workforce and declining tax revenue. Threatened by China it will either move closer to America or accommodate itself to China's regional primacy

* The emerging multi-polar system will be prone to instability as China , India and Japan jockey for influence, markets and energy resources

* America's current role as regional balancer will be of greater importance than it is today, even as US power declines

* The evolving relationship between China and India could pose severe challenges for Asean

* Their strategic concerns over sea lane security and access to energy resources will fuel a naval arms race with Sino-Indian rivalry will likely be played out in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, and in South East Asia's strategic maritime choke points, especially the Straits of Malacca

* China's insatiable demand for energy resources exploiting ultra deep off shore energy fields could raise tensions between them and certain Asean countres over territorial claims in South China Sea. More powerful, they may demand more deference from their neighbors

*On terrorism, threat from groups will have diminished but descendants of group may survive
and obtain nuclear or biological weapons. May also look to disrupt the world economy by targeting South east Asia sea lanes

*Impact of climate change likely to be severe. Water scarcity will hit agricultural production, and could result in increased migration to Australia

* Melting of the Arctic could open free ice shipping lanes along the Northwest Passage during the summer as early as 2013. Shorter shipping distances between the North Pacific and North Atlantic will be a boon to China, Japan and Korea but be a major blow to ports in South East Asia; especially Singapore.

* On the bright side, water scarcity should enable Singapore to cash in on its leading position as a provider of clean water technology

* Asian regionalisation - it lauds the Asean Plus, involving 10 Asean states, China, Japan and South Korea as a remarkable Pan Asian venture which could facilitate greater economic integration, insulate the region from global financial turmoil and give East Asia 'greater representation at the global table". Asian regionalisation could also help bridge historical animosities and engender a new sense of regional community.

* If the report proves correct, South-east Asia will need to harness that community spirit by 2025 if it is to meet the challenges posed by a world transformed

But then how does this all fit in with what we know as devotees?

Swami has said that by the time Prema Sai is born in 2030 the Golden Age will be in full swing with peace and harmony everywhere.

Then there are the nadi reading predictions that indicate only 8 years before his passing will swami be known throughout the world and accepted by the Muslims too. This around 4-5 years from now which co-incides with the end of the Eygptian pyramids dating in 2012-13 and is the acopolyptic date pointed to by many of the new age groups.

Is the crisis the beginning of preparing for an even greater transformation to take place before swami ushers in the golden age. Or is it going to be something less dramatic with a gradual change in attitude and geo-politics with the community spirit harnessed as mentioned about by regional allegiances leading to a new but balanced world order?

Any comments..?!

2 comments:

Lughnasa said...

Nice post Suren, makes for very interesting reading.

I have one small but important statistic to add, which I think shows that America's wealth and influence is about to disappear far more dramatically than the 'Global Trends 2025' analysis above suggests. It is about the relationship between the production economy and the service economy in America over the last forty years.

To clarify the terms, the production economy is that part of a country's economy which produces material goods i.e. agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and construction. The service economy is made up of industries and occupations that cost money but don't produce a tangible end-product i.e. transportation, education, health care, retail, administration etc. Put simply, the production economy creates wealth, while the service economy uses wealth.

So the statistic is this. In 1970, the production economy in the USA was twice as big as the service economy. At the last measure, which was 2006, the service economy had taken over, and was bigger than the production economy by a ratio of five to one. That is an enormous turn around.

The US economy over the last ten years especially, has become more and more reliant on consuming, in order to keep itself going, rather than producing goods and actually creating its own wealth. Americans today are spending five times what they are making, and that to me is a recipe for disaster.

Think of the archetypal American worker in 1970, manufacturing cars on an assembly line in Detroit, producing actual goods for the US (and world) market, and creating revenue for the US economy. The archetypal American worker today is flipping hamburgers in McDonalds, generating no real wealth for the American economy, and only enabling others to spend the money they have already borrowed on their credit cards.

Now, I am no economist, and I don't know what other factors might affect the strength and stability of the US economy, but I know from my own experience, working for American technology corporations over the last fifteen years, there has been a steady bleed of manufacturing operations away from their original base in the USA, into Europe in the early to mid 1990s, and subsequently to Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America in the 21st century.

The bottom line is that Americans now find themselves in trillions of dollars of debt, and when they look under the mattress to get the cash to pay it off, they will realise, not only are they broke, but their capacity to produce new wealth has been taken away from them and moved to cheaper labour markets around the world.

The knock-on problem for the rest of us is that the biggest market place on the planet will suddenly cease to function. Whether you are manufacturing plasma screen TVs in Beijing, developing IT solutions in Hyderabad, or fabricating computer chips in Ireland, your economy is hugely dependent on American spending power. If that is gone, then we are looking at a far more fundamental transformation in global economics than the 'Global Trends 2025' projection suggests, which keeps America at number 1, China number 2, India number 3 and Japan reduced to a 'middle rank power', whatever that means.

I would like to issue a disclaimer at this point. The report you are reading does not come from a PhD economist or some enlightened soothsayer. I am just a layman asking obvious questions, and the answers I am finding are pointing to something a lot more dramatic coming down the tracks than our politicians and bankers are telling us about.

So if anyone has a better insight on this subject, please enlighten me. Do not let me wallow in my own ignorance. Enlighten me. Please!

JiVa said...

I hear you Shay and I have no idea either, but the article comes from the Singapore's main paper and is reporting what top intelligence people apparently want us to believe?!

Also liked your perspective on manufacturing in China to IT in India to chips in Ireland.

When it comes to production and service what you say makes sense, but like you I am no economist! Perhaps we need someone like Jegadeshan (who is an international economist) or Isaac Tigrett (who is a business tycoon in the US) to answer these questions?

Alternatively, we could find out from another PhD Soothsayer and make a post with the following macro-economics factors in the US with their statistics to analyse, and then we could better appreciate what was not only going in America but also estimate the same within each and every other country (such as China, India & Ireland) & region.

Basically I am talking about learning the macro-economics through the blog! Would require getting the right statistics and measures under a list of categories that might include:

1. Models (ie. monarchy to multiparty, to bi party to communist)

2. Rules, laws & policies (macro to micro)

3. Areas (East vs West; region, country)

4. Land Size & Regional Location (Singapore island/straits vs China/India continent)

5. Population

6. Resources (one, few, multiple)

7. Trade (limited, multiple)

8. Stages (third world, developing, developed)

9. History (Generally, west = democratic vs east = autocratic)until independence

10. Economic Growth over time
(GDP, Production vs Service etc.)

11. Green Issues (oil consumption, gases, carbon emissions levels)

12 Alternative friendly energy (amount of solar => electrical => bio-fuels => mechanical)

13. History, culture, racial demographics etc..

14. Sai Centres (local & regional) - number, location, activities

This last point is to remind us that if things do go from bad to worse, then having a blog like this, that could potentially help promote global awareness amongst devotees would allow a macro understanding of issues translate into effective micro management of sai seva projects for the future effects of the crisis.

Projects could be co-ordinated via a International Sai Web for the organisation (with Sai Edu-best, Medi-best, Lega-best, Sai Eco-best blogs inter-linked with this blog to assist financial aid projects for humanitarian geographical categories of zone, region and country.

Anyway, sorry to digress..! I am not the soothsayer but just thinking how a Sai soothing and saying might be the united thought word and deed needed amongst net-working devotees if things in the US and thus else where will be a lot worse than this trend predicts.

In effect, what can we do about it as devotees to anticipate and prepare for this as a service organisation to make a difference in those unfortuante peoples lives who will get affected? Is not a co-ordianted web the best way?